Last week, I looked at area high school girls' basketball teams through the lens of advanced statistics to glean a better understanding of northwest Kansas squads as sub-state approaches. Instead of looking at per-game numbers, I examined teams on a per-possession basis, which is how many statisticians, notably Ken Pomeroy, examine basketball teams. Since teams play at different paces, looking at teams on a per-possession basis yields a more complete picture of a team's strengths and weaknesses. Just like in my girls' story that ran last Monday, I examined offensive and defensive efficiency, free throw rate, offensive rebound rate and possessions per game for the boys' teams.

1. Downs-Lakeside has reinvented itself:

Last season, Lakeside finished 19-3 and lost in an upset to Victoria in the sub-state championship game. The Knights had senior Connor Shoemaker, a first team all-area player and a current Fort Hays State University cross country runner, who averaged 17.7 points per contest. Keegan Heiland shot 38 percent from beyond the arc and averaged 12.5 points a contest. Downs shot 53 percent overall and 36 percent from the 3-point line -- both extremely high rates for high school squads -- and averaged 1.20 points per possession on 48.5 possessions per contest. However, the Knights permitted 0.90 points per possession, a defense that isn't state championship caliber.

This year, Shoemaker has graduated and Heiland is shooting only 25 percent from beyond the arc. However, Lakeside, 17-1 and ranked No. 2 in Class 1A, Division I, has posted a solid offense in a much faster system. The Knights are averaging 58.1 possessions a game and scoring 0.92 points a contest.

"Expect three to four players to put in 10 to 15 points," coach Kyle Beisner said.

However, on defense, Lakeside has improved tremendously from last season and permits just 0.57 points per possession. It's a defense that is now certainly state-caliber. Beisner said if the Knights score 40 points, they have a chance to win.

Bottom line: Lakeside, helped by ace defender Alex Renken, has a team on both ends of the floor that is state tournament-ready. Lakeside's sub-state does include Sylvan-Lucas, the only team that defeated them this year. However, the Knights' defense will keep them in any game, including at state. On paper, Lakeside is similar to Plainville, a favorite for the Class 2A title. With the improvements on defense this season, Downs is now a favorite for a state crown.

2. Natoma's defense:

It's no secret that Natoma, despite a 4-14 record, has a chance to reach the state tournament out of the Almena-Northern Valley sub-state. The sub-state has no dominant team and Natoma has played with several of the state's top teams, including Plainville and Wilson.

The Tigers don't have a lot of height, which causes them to have an offensive rebound on just 17 percent of their shots, a low rate (for example, Ellis and Lakeside is at 22 percent, Victoria is at 19 percent). Natoma also struggles shooting the ball, shooting just 33 percent from the field.

The Tigers average 64.9 possessions per game and average 0.69 points per possession, also a low rate. However, Natoma, helped by a zone and constant effort, permits just 0.79 points per possession, a solid rate.

"We just never give up, we keep finishing the game no matter what it poses, you have got to finish the game and play hard until the end," Natoma coach Kurt Grafel said.

Bottom line: It's a defensive rate that will keep Natoma in any game. However, for the Tigers to reach state, they'll likely need to slightly improve their offensive numbers. One possibility to help is have junior Phillip Murphy shoot more treys. He leads the team with 12.4 points per contest, but has just 86 3-point attempts.

3. Hoxie's offense:

The best shooting team in the area, from a statistical standpoint, is definitely Hoxie (15-3). The Indians have a 0.77 defensive efficiency, a solid number. However, the Indians' offense is exceptional. Hoxie has a low offensive-rebounding rate (16 percent) and a low free throw/field goal rate (15 percent). However, the Indians take care of the ball (19 percent turnover rate, a great number) and shoot exceptionally. For the season, Hoxie shoots 49 percent on 2-point shots and 37 percent on 3s.

It greatly helps that senior Jaxsen Moss, the team's leading scorer at 17.5 points a contest, is also a great shooter. He shoots 50 percent from the field and 41 percent from 3-point range. Hoxie averages 0.98 points per possession, an excellent offense. As well, Hoxie does a great job of sharing the ball. Their 15.6 assists per game lead the area, according to maxpreps.com.

Bottom line: Hoxie is the best team in the Quinter sub-state. They could have a cold shooting night, but everyone would have to be off. Against KSHSAA-affliated schools, Hoxie has shot worse than 40 percent in one game -- and still won. This team is good enough to reach the Final Four in Class 1A, Division 1.