By MIKE CORN

mcorn@dailynews.net

As drought slowly creeps back into the picture for a five-county region in and around the Hays area, the formation of an El Nino off the Pacific Coast just might be a harbinger of good things to come.

El Ninos generally are responsible for slightly higher rainfall rates in the Hays area, according to research by a Fort Hays State University professor.

But it's probably not a good idea just yet to run out and start buying up water-thirsty crops or lawns.

El Ninos are regular visitors to the Pacific, with the name coming from the Christ child because it often is seen near Christmas time near Peru.

It is a warming of the ocean waters, and it can have nearly direct effects on the Hays area.

Generally speaking, said John Heinrichs, chairman of the FHSU geosciences department and the author of a 2006 study on the climate of Hays, rainfall increases with an El Nino.

Conversely, he said, rainfall falls during a La Nina, a cooling of the waters in the Pacific.

Scientists just now are confirming that an El Nino has formed in the Pacific, just as the Drought Monitor based at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln started calling areas in Kansas abnormally dry, even though much of the state has been receiving adequate or heavy rainfall.

Far southwest Kansas, especially Morton, Stanton and Hamilton counties, is among those spots considered abnormally dry.

But researchers also are saying that eastern Ellis and Rooks and western Russell and Osborne counties are abnormally dry. Northern Smith County is abnormally dry as well, as are Jewell and Republic counties.

Hays is 3.89 inches below normal, as far as rainfall is concerned, while Goodland and Hill City are less than an inch behind normal.

Russell, however, has only had 7.75 inches of moisture so far this year -- 9.51 inches below normal.

El Ninos form every three to five years, Heinrichs said.

Generally, it tends to dry conditions in Australia, perhaps create heavy rains in California.

And for Hays?

"We get an increase in rainfall," he said.

It's not a lot, but on average 1.6 additional inches of rain.

"We're not talking about a huge difference," Heinrichs said.

But it that additional rainfall comes, he said, "It tends to be in the spring after El Nino forms."

Increased rainfall is not guaranteed, however.

Rainfall was below normal in 1983, following the formation of an El Nino, in fact the "El Nino of the century," Heinrichs said.

But rainfall was heavy in 1993, the year following another warming of the Pacific Ocean. That one stuck around from 1991 through 1995.

"There's so many other factors that come into play," he said.

Another benefit, at least to points more eastward, Heinrichs said, is that during an El Nino, there are fewer Atlantic hurricanes that make landfall.

El Ninos typically last about two years, but some have lasted as long as five years.

"If it's setting up now, next spring we would expect to see higher precipitation," Heinrichs said.