By MIKE CORN

mcorn@dailynews.net

On a scale of 1-to-10, weather-watcher Bill Mai is giving this latest spring storm a miserly 4, even though it had been billed as a storm of epic proportions.

"I can't really tell," Sharon Springs farmer Bill Mai said of the snowfall at his Wallace County farm. "I'm guessing we've only had about 4 inches."

It was something of an elusive target for television forecasters, first predicting the Hays area would be in the bull's-eye for about 19 inches of snow. By evening, that bull's-eye slipped to the southwest, but at least one station was calling for up to 29 inches of snow.

National Weather Service meteorologist Dave Floyd said computer models pump out numbers that are astronomical, and then it's up to the forecaster to step in and cut them down to size.

In the Goodland area where Floyd is based, early computer models spit out numbers that showed the area might get about 40 inches of snow.

"We normally cut that down to a third," he said. "We thought we had a shot at a foot."

Cutting back the amount forecast, however, takes place behind the scenes at the NWS office.

Forecasting the numbers on television is perhaps part of the push to stay ahead of the market, and attract attention.

"I think it's a new gimmicky thing," Floyd said. "How can you stand out from the others?"

He pointed to 10 years ago when Doppler radar first came on the scene.

"When one got Doppler, everyone had to get one."

The problem with computer models spitting out the numbers, Floyd said, is meteorologists often need to step in and use their knowledge of the area to modify the results.

Floyd was not about to throw stones at his fellow meteorologists and suggested instead the forecast might be in the ballpark, considering Garden City early this morning already had received 10 to 14 inches of snow, and was facing a full day of heavy snow.

Today is expected to be a day of snow for much of western Kansas, but the heaviest snow -- as the National Weather Service had predicted early on -- would be in southwest Kansas, dipping into the Oklahoma panhandle.

Wind speeds aren't as brisk as had been forecast, but that's sure to make things a bit more bearable as the day wears on.

In the Dodge City area, NWS meteorologist Marc Russell said the snow was expected to pick up.

"We'll definitely see some blizzard conditions," he said.

Early this morning, visibility was down to a quarter of a mile in places, but to meet the blizzard definition, visibility must drop below that distance.

As the wind picks up as the day goes on, that's likely to happen.

"We've got all day to go," he said of the weather system.

Hays, Russell said, will be receiving smaller amounts of snow, compared to areas not far from here.

The heaviest snow, Russell said, will follow a line from just south of Hays down to Dodge City.

Hays still could receive as much as 5 inches of snow, but even southwest Ellis County could receive higher amounts.

"You'll see a lot more snow from Great Bend to Dodge City," he said. "They'll see double what you'll see."

The snow should last throughout the day, tapering off tonight.

The wind, however, will continue to howl, making for poor visibility and driving conditions.

Snowfall has varied elsewhere in northwest Kansas.

In Cheyenne County, 4 to 5 inches has fallen, according to the sheriff's dispatcher.

Some drifting is occurring outside St. Francis, but no problems have been reported.

In nearby Decatur County, however, it's a different story.

"Absolutely nothing," the sheriff's office there said. "I think we missed it."

In Ness County, about 3 inches has fallen, canceling schools.

Schools were canceled in Wallace County as well.

There, Mai said the snow was falling, but visibility was pretty decent. The wind was only blowing at about 26 mph.

"You wouldn't call it a bad blizzard," he said, adding he had thought about how to rate a blizzard.

This one, he said, would rate as a 4, with 10 being the worst.

For that, he points to a November storm in 1948, when temperatures hovered near zero and snow fell for three days and three nights.

Snowdrifts piled as much as 15 feet high, covering semi trucks that had been parked in Sharon Springs.

A 1957 blizzard was bad as well, he said, but the temperature wasn't as cold.

Forecasting snow can be a tricky business, Floyd said, and this storm was on the watch list four days out.

"There's just a lot that can go wrong in four days," he said. "If there's a shift of a hundred miles, it can be the difference between a foot and partly cloudy."