By MIKE CORN

mcorn@dailynews.net

Knocking on wood to keep from jinxing himself, Fred Schields said a couple timely rains and no spring freeze could set the stage for the best wheat crop since 1998.

But that's only in the area where he farms near Goodland.

Elsewhere, prospects either aren't so great or mediocre at best.

Forecasters this morning estimated the size of the state's wheat crop this year at 340 million bushels. That's down slightly from last year, but sharply higher from 2007.

Today's USDA prediction of 340 million bushels in Kansas is slightly higher than last week's trade group estimate of 333.3 million bushels.

Average yields across the state are forecast at 40 bushels per acre this year, the same as it was a year ago, according to Kansas Agricultural Statistics Service, a branch of the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

Much of the difference in total production comes from the loss of nearly 400,000 acres of land planted to wheat. This year, only 8.5 million acres of wheat were planted, down from 8.9 million last year.

Nationally, production is forecast at 1.5 billion bushels, down 20 percent from last year.

Generally, said KASS statistician Bob White, the western third of the state is expected to have higher wheat yields. In the central third, estimates are down, reflecting damage from freeze and heavy rains.

While Schields is optimistic about production on his farm, he's aware conditions aren't so great elsewhere.

"Talking to some of the custom cutters, they're concerned," he said, pointing out crop conditions in Texas, Oklahoma and southern Kansas rapidly are deteriorating.

USDA estimates production in Oklahoma will hit only 80 million bushels, the result of a late spring freeze, about half what that state's farmers produced last year.

That's not the forecast in the Sherman County area where Schields farms.

"This is probably the best wheat prospects since 1998," he said this morning from the farm's scale house where he and his crew were making plans for the day. Schields also was checking market conditions, what with the crop report being issued today.

"We're looking at a much above average crop if we can get one or two rains between now and filling of the grain," Schields said.

On a scale of 1-to-10, this year's crop is an 8 or 9, he said.

That's a complete turnaround for the Sherman County area, where rainfall patterns, and wheat crops as a result, have been erratic since 1999.

"We got it off to a good start," Schields said of the wheat. "We got rains in October and November that helped to root it down."

It had been a scorching summer, however. Hail last summer took about a third of his wheat crop.

By the end of June, the National Weather Service in Goodland had received only 4 inches of rain -- 5 inches below normal.

In a surprising move, weather patterns changed in August when 6 inches of rain fell. More than 6 inches fell in September and October.

"We didn't get any winter moisture," Schields said, "which was a concern."

But as spring unfolded and the crop came out of dormancy, he was pleased with what he was seeing.

"The wheat's got a good color," he said. "It's got the proper thickness."

But it's not yet in the bin.

"We've got to keep a freeze away," he said.