OLATHE, Kan. (AP) -- An agricultural economist from suburban Kansas City who is forecasting bad times ahead hopes he is mistaken.

Bill Helming of Olathe is making dire predictions of a beaten-down stock market, a jobless rate at 12 percent, widespread debt defaults and a deflationary price spiral.

Helming makes his case for what he calls a "modern-day depression" in his 195-page, self-published book. It's title is "What Goes Up Eventually Comes Down."

Many other economists are warning that the recovery will be weak and slow -- but a recovery all the same.

Helming still sees too many underlying problems brought on by decades of easy credit.

"We borrowed our way to prosperity, and that has never in history been sustainable," Helming said in an interview with The Kansas City Star.

Helming has offered dire predictions before, including after the stock market crashed in October 1987.

"We're heading for a recession we haven't seen the likes of since the 1930s," he told The Star at the time.

Helming saw summer 1990 as the onset of "the most serious deflationary recession we've had in over 50 years."

He declared outright in November 1992 that the nation's economy had entered a depression. And July 1994 reminded him of "what happened in the early 1930s."

"I hope I'm wrong," Helming said of his latest predictions, "but I'm trying to be as much of a realist as I can. The stage is set for some difficult times in urban America. There's nobody that's going to be left out of this."

As bad as the last two years have been, Helming says the most difficult stretch starts later this year.

He said things will be worst for those who owe a lot of debt.

"It's already playing out," he said, "but it's going to play out much more dramatically."