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And now for something totally obvious

Published on -7/23/2010, 11:09 AM

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A couple of weeks ago, I found myself watching German economists on the television explain why, in the long run, America's trade deficit with China was a good thing for the Americans. I wondered what they meant, and then I put it all together, something totally obvious.

I must bring up one question that was put to me recently. When did "globalization" begin? Ja, when did it? Good question, right? Now if you're concerned with the real answer, it began when some social historian invented it to sound important in the 1960s. I'm not gonna name names here but that particular individual had about as much foresight as Alfred Thayer Mahan on sea power and world trade. But that's not to say these two particular ideas had no influence in their own time. Let me explain.

I know I've written about Mahan before, but let's review. In the 1880s, Mahan, a naval veteran of the Civil War began writing down ideas that led to the "Influence of Seapower Upon History." In this work, Mahan explained how all the great nations of the world, in order to keep strong trade relations, built large navies. Nations that built large navies were successful and remained successful. Cite Britain and France here on the qualities of success. Sure, OK ...

Now all the guy really did was write a book on something most world leaders were already aware of for centuries, if not millennia. So he wrote down something completely obvious to everyone and was praised for it. Now some people, historians mostly, remember his name, because because because ... his work influenced his time. It started the naval arms race in Europe before World War I and the growth of the American fleet under Teddy Roosevelt's administration and ... and it led to Japan's great naval power.

So, for 50 years, this naval historian Mahan, who's work influenced history for beyond 50 years up to World War II and after, wrote down something obvious that all great powers were aware of. If you don't protect your trade fleet with a large naval fleet, you won't have strong international trade, because other nations and individual miscreants, pirates, will steal or destroy your trade vessels.

Why was it obvious? Because nations with large merchant fleets had already built large navies for thousands of years. They already knew this information. Mahan only jump started a popular movement over something everyone already realized. Great Britain, the Dutch, Spain, Ancient Rome, Persia, the Ottomans, Medieval China, even Pacific Islanders, and of course the United States for much of its history knew about protecting the merchant fleets.

What makes trade deficit with China so harmful? It doesn't for one, and for two, read something about the Dutch, Great Britain, Spain, Portugal and France and trade with China. China has never taken in more imports than it has exports. There has always been a trade deficit with China. While I was in the Netherlands, I witnessed this first hand. They still sell porcelain in every form, popular, but not from China. That says they used to import a lot of it a few centuries ago.

The Dutch, believe it or not, had the largest navy in the world in the 17th century. They were a wealthy country that far surpassed other nations. All of it was built on trade with the Orient and the vast merchant fleet coupled with a navy to protect it. Have you ever heard of the ghost ship called the Flying Dutchman? That's a legend sailors used to tell at sea because the Dutch had such a frightening presence at one time.

So the Dutch became wealthy off of cheap Chinese goods and sold them for super-inflated prices in Europe. In short, it was a brilliant business model and it made many people rich, rich enough to fund brilliant artists for nearly a century, all the while surviving eighty, yes eighty, years or war with Spain. Further, it was still a trade deficit with China that the Dutch weren't a bit concerned about, and the Chinese still weren't gaining all that much.

The same is true for China today, though the market with the US is infinitely larger and plays to the poorer masses, cheap Chinese goods are sold in America today for far more than they are worth, really. So the story's close to the same that of which we've seen before. Country has large merchant fleet, country builds large navy to protect said fleet and said trade partnerships, country becomes wealthy and stays wealthy as long as said country maintains its naval presence.

Now, ever since 1903, nations of the world have had to deal with another form of "navy" in the air. Ever since the 1960s, nations of the world, prosperous nations of the world, have had to deal with the possibilities of traversing the outer atmosphere, what we call "space." "Space" in the 21st century has made the United States extremely wealthy and powerful. Our space program is the same as a 17th century Dutch fleet. Hopefully we see its greatest benefits long before we become a forgotten nation of the long ago 20th century.

Globalization? Globalization has always been, as has sea power. Stop worrying about the little things. We cannot cut funding to NASA, that lacks foresight and shows today's politicians need another Mahan, this time "On the Influence of Space Power."

Worry about falling behind instead.

Adam Conkey, an Edmond native, is the son of a Kansas farmer and a graduate of Fort Hays State University.

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