Kansas politics might have been forever changed with the cold-blooded murder of abortion provider Dr. George Tiller in his church on May 31.

What's different? Abortion is a sidebar issue in Topeka this session, not even garnering one headline as a major issue the Legislature will address.

This shift in emphasis has occurred in spite the headline-grabbing trial of Tiller's assailant and Phill Kline's appearance before the Kansas Board for Discipline of Attorneys for allegedly lying to the Kansas Supreme Court regarding his investigations of abortion providers. This might be a first time in over 20 years, through good economic times and bad, that abortion is not a front-burner issue in the Statehouse.

Some may argue that this is the calm before the storm. Pro-life forces in the Legislature know that Gov. Mark Parkinson will veto any legislation and thus are waiting for U.S. Sen. Sam Brownback to win the governorship in November before pushing legislation to substantial curtail abortions in Kansas. Perhaps. But the presence of a Democratic governor has never stopped their efforts in previous years.

A more likely explanation is that a confluence of political forces has inadvertently moved abortion off the front burner of Kansas politics. First, there is Tiller's murder coupled with the decision by his family to permanently shut down his clinic in Wichita, thus removing the epicenter of abortion politics in Kansas. Second, leaders on both sides of this debate have moved out of state. Kathleen Sebelius resigned as governor to become the U.S. Secretary of Health, and Kline moved out of state after losing elections for attorney general and Johnson County prosecutor. Third, the Legislature is rightfully preoccupied with budgetary matters in this recession year. Thus, taken together, Kansas is experiencing a respite in abortion politics. The question is whether this is temporary or permanent.

The answer depends on Republican U.S. Sen. Brownback, a Saul-to-Paul cultural warrior and leader of the pro-life Republicans, who is retiring from the U.S. Senate in 2010 to run for governor. Let's be clear. Unless Democratic Gov. MArk Parkinson changes his mind and decides to run for governor, Brownback appears to be a shoe-in. As Brownback moves to the forefront of Kansas politics, he has a choice. He can use political rhetoric that once again will inflame abortion politics in Kansas, or he can use rhetoric and policies that keep the issue of abortion in the background.

At this point, Brownback has made some symbolic moves toward the latter. He supported John McCain for the Republican nomination for president in 2008, despite McCain's reputation as an antagonist of cultural warriors everywhere. He also voted in favor of confirming Sebelius for U.S. Secretary of Health, despite strong opposition from his pro-life supporters. With no meaningful opposition for governor within the GOP or Democratic Party, Brownback has the latitude to follow these symbolic actions with substantive acts designed to assure those who are not in the pro-life Republican camp that the abortion issue is no longer a litmus test issue; that it no longer defines friend from foe.

On the other hand, many political observers suspect that Brownback seeks the governorship to pad his political resume for an eventual run for president in 2012 or 2016. If this is the case, Brownback's political calculus regarding abortion politics is complicated. Brownback may choose to gravitate toward the GOP "tea party" movement, which has sought to decouple itself from social issues to focus in free-market economic principles.

Falling in line with the tea party movement could lead Brownback away from inflaming the abortion debate in Kansas. However, given the weight of social conservatives in the GOP primary constituency in most states, moving toward the middle of the abortion debate might decouple Brownback from his natural base of support among social conservatives, perhaps dooming his presidential aspirations.

Thus, far from de-emphasizing abortion, Brownback will choose to make abortion front-burner issue once again.

In 1912, the Bull Moose progressive rebellion within the Republican Party almost tore it asunder. Two years later, another Kansas Republican gubernatorial candidate, Arthur Capper, chose party unity over the strong wishes of his progressive coalition partners; making peace with the "standpat" old guard, machine Republicans. His choice ushered in a period of almost 100 years of GOP dominance of Kansas politics.

History has a strange way of repeating itself. I wonder if Brownback is a student of Kansas history?

Joe Aistrup is a professor of political science at Kansas State University.