On the last day of each month, Statehouse insiders eagerly await two pieces of paper that detail how much money Kansas has received from taxes in the previous month and for the fiscal year-to-date.

The information comes, naturally, from the Kansas Department of Revenue, and it's a peek into not only how state finances are doing but to a large degree on how Kansans are doing economically.

It's a way to track what Kansans are making at their jobs, how their employers are doing and what Kansans are buying on which the state collects taxes. It's also a way to see how close the Consensus Revenue Estimating Group, a bunch of the state's savviest fiscal gurus, has come in estimating revenues for the future. That's important because it is the estimate that sets the target for the governor's budget each year -- and those monthly updates have an effect on how the Legislature approves or disapproves, or maybe just switches around, what the governor proposes.

Late in the afternoon on Sept. 30, for example, Revenue released figures showing Kansas took in $573 million. Not bad, you'd say, except that the estimate from the consensus group was that the state would take in $589 million in September. That's $16 million short of estimates, and that September shortfall gobbled up about $15 million in unexpected above-estimate money the state received in the first two months of this budget year, which started July 1.

OK, what do you learn when you drill down through the numbers?

Well, you learn that corporations paid about $7.3 million less in taxes than expected, meaning they earned less money than had been predicted.

And you learn that individuals (actually, employers through their payroll withholding for your income taxes) paid in about $15.5 million less than predicted which means either there are fewer people working or they are working for less money than was predicted.

Oh, and also that the state share of sales tax receipts, at $142.6 million in September, was only about $600,000 more than predicted. Statistically, that half-percent in sales tax revenues above expectations is almost insignificant.

With a little less wages, judging by income tax withholding, and level or near-level spending on things that sales taxes are paid on, you can see a little squeeze going on.

That's the sort of thing that you learn from the monthly tax revenues report. Things are getting tighter in Kansas, apparently.

Overall revenues? Well, oil and gas severance tax receipts were up because prices for those resources are high; taxes on liquor and drinks at private clubs were down, indicating that there's less partying going on.

Cigarette taxes, maybe from possibly nervous smokers, were up, though, at nearly $11 million in September, 22 percent above estimates.

Figure into your diagnosis of the Kansas economy that gasoline prices are up, taking more of Kansans pay (those taxes go to the highway agency, and are not counted in state tax revenues because they never hit the all-purpose state general fund). People might be paying down credit cards (again, no tax on that use of money) or maybe they are just saving the money or what's available after buying necessities, food, gas ... oh yes, and smokes.

Syndicated by Hawver News Co. of Topeka, Martin Hawver is publisher of Hawver's Capitol Report. To learn more about this statewide political news service, visit www.hawvernews.com.