Barnett the enigma, Mann charges ahead
The last in a series of columns profiling the candidates for First Congressional District.
When the race was just Tim Huelskamp, Rob Wasinger and Sue Boldra, the contest seemed to have the potential for a very close run.
And then Jim Barnett entered the fray. The GOP nominee for governor in 2006, Barnett entered with name recognition, organization and a fundraising base that would make any campaigner jealous.
Ever since, Barnett has cruised on in the lead in both polls and is one of the favorites to win. Barnett ran a frontrunner's race until recently, focused on him as a problem solver and "common-sense conservative" very much in the Jerry Moran vein.
Everything changes
In the last month of a campaign, though, everything can change. The race gets close, the attacks get more frequent and personal, and casual voters start paying attention.
Other candidates have been attacking Barnett for being more liberal than he claims to be, and in a fight to see who can be most conservative he has a big target on his back.
In the last two weeks, Barnett has come out swinging, replying to attacks by groups supporting Huelskamp and a particularly direct attack on Tracey Mann. Barnett looked to cruise into the nomination until recently, when the race became a three- or even four-man race.
Who is Marck Cobb?
If Sue Boldra has struggled to raise money, Marck Cobb decided to forego the process entirely. Pledging to avoid out-of-district money from day one, Cobb has raised little and had a public profile to match.
Like Boldra, Cobb is running in the spirit of citizen politics. But it's easy to confuse the grassroots spirit for a lack of ability, and that perception hurts Cobb greatly.
Sadly, like many candidates of his ilk, Cobb's struggles to win votes have overshadowed a 20-year career in the military and subsequent work with area Red Cross chapters and other charitable organizations. The nobility of candidates like Cobb and Boldra gets ignored in the day-to-day campaign process, and that's unfortunate. Even if Cobb doesn't poll much in the primary, it's good to see that there are people still willing to stand up and run on the principles they believe in.
The charger
If this race has been about establishing one's self as the next Jerry Moran, nobody has done a better job up to now than Tracey Mann.
The Quinter native started with nothing -- no campaign experience, no money, and seemingly no hope. However, Mann has had the most consistent and Moran-like message throughout the campaign.
From an aggressive travel schedule to a focused television message, enthusiasm for Tracey Mann has spread like prairie fire across the district. Or maybe I'm just mistaking Mann signs for Moran's because their font and color schemes are identical.
Mann started with only 4 percent of support in a SurveyUSA poll, but he's been making up for lost time ever since. Money has poured in to Mann's account and by last month's poll he was tied with Barnett at 25 percent.
If Mann can continue the farm-candidate theme and not be undone by the attacks that will only increase over the next week, he presents the best threat to Barnett's dominance and Huelskamp's relentlessness.
If Mann loses that momentum he has built, it will likely be over a comment he made suggesting President Barack Obama provide his birth certificate. Two newspapers have withdrawn their endorsements of Mann as a result.
Mann must now learn what most campaigns know: There is a way to recover from a gaffe, but there a thousand more ways to make it worse.
Make an appointment
Many of you have likely already cast your votes, as have I. In seven years as a Kansas resident this is my first opportunity to see a true large-scale campaign in operation.
Every state and district is different, and I have made few predictions because everything I think I know about campaigns and candidates might be thrown out the window on Tuesday night.
But the most important thing is for each of you to make up your mind about who you think is the best representative for this district and then back that up with the most powerful political force known to mankind: the vote.
Chapman Rackaway is an associate professor of political science at Fort Hays State University.